Netzlast-Prognose (grid load forecast)

Calibrated probabilistic day-ahead forecast of German grid load (hourly, region DE).

Backtest (pooled)

Run test-v1 · 2024-10-01 – 2026-09-30 · git 91470fc764 · store 5a0c9ddb2597 · 694 s

Caveats. The operators' reference is SMARD filter 411, treated here as their day-ahead forecast; that assignment was checked against a single value of the SMARD chart, publication time and vintage are unknown, and the reference may hold information the model does not. The tso_reference quantiles are our own construction from the residuals of the last 56 days, not a forecast by the operators. CRPS is the 19-quantile grid approximation (2/(K+1) times the sum of pinball losses), not the exact integral. The figures come from the pre-registered rolling-origin backtest with a monthly refit (each month scored by the model trained before it) and do not evaluate the served model, which was trained through the end of the test period. lgbm_cqr_wx uses Open-Meteo Previous Runs weather and exists in the backtest only; its comparison with lgbm_cqr covers only the 638 origins from 2025-01-01. The lgbm_cqr_wx table row pooled over all 730 origins is not that comparison: weather exists only from 2024 on and is largely missing in the first months. The store hash shown belongs to a data snapshot that can no longer be reconstructed; the evidence (release assets, checksums) and a digest over the protocol window are in docs/backtest.md. Details: docs/backtest.md

Live forward period: rolling CRPS (28 days)

Preliminary: fewer than eight weeks of scored days. Live numbers are quoted only after that. (0/56)

Method and protocol: repository